Greater Boston Housing Inventory: Slim Pickings.
Will the coming fall market be any different from these past few months?
First, it’s important to note that housing market inventory has hit historically anemic levels this year, in general. For anyone on the hunt for a home, I may as well be telling you that the sun is hot or that the ocean is deep. You already know this. It’s slim pickins at best.
What you may not know, however, is that in every year, there are two major real estate market cycles: Spring and Fall. Spring is the larger, more pronounced, and enduring cycle. It starts in early March and slows down in the end of June. The Fall market, by comparison, is much shorter, but tends to be pretty active from Labor Day until Halloween. So in early March there’s a pretty sizeable uptick in new inventory. But the largest month-over-month jump in market inventory happens between August and September.
This chart shows what percentage of the total year’s inventory hits the market in a given month. This is the average for Jamaica Plain over 10 years. The two largest deltas between months are February to March and August to September.
It’s also worth noting that over the past 4 years, the “months of inventory” has risen pretty dramatically into each Fall season. Months of inventory is a function of time: How many properties selling (or going under agreement) versus how many are coming on over a given timeframe. In other words, how long will everything that is on the market right now take to sell? On the “months of inventory” spectrum, 0-3 months indicates a strong seller’s market, while 6 months or more indicates a strong buyer’s market.
Looking at the graph below, we see that in each of the past 4 fall markets, there has a been a significant jump in “months of inventory”. However, it’s also just barely climbing into the realm of market equilibrium where it’s neither a seller’s nor a buyer’s market. It’s still leaning “seller’s”.
We don’t know for sure what will come of this year’s fall real estate market, but if past is prologue, as the saying goes, we can definitely expect a heck of a lot more than what we’ve got now, which is next to nothing!
So if you’re in the market for a home and you’re growing frustrated from the lack of choices available to you, hang in there little longer. The odds are with you!
And as always, if you or someone you know is looking for experienced, intelligent, and well-versed buyer representation, call us at The Boston Home Team anytime! We’re here to guide you home.
